Megatrends: The tidal wave has reached the shore
We at PwC have done a lot of thinking about the Megatrends — the deep and profound trends, global in scope and long-term in effect, that are touching everyone on the planet and that are shaping our world for many years to come.
When we first identified the Megatrends almost a decade ago, I had discussions with many leaders about what they meant for their countries, their organizations, and themselves. And it was obvious that people generally thought of these Megatrends as something that could be addressed in a somewhat leisurely way. But since then it’s become increasingly clear that that is no longer true (and probably never was). Estimates about how fast the Megatrends would have meaningful impact seem to have been way too conservative:
- Average global temperatures are expected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next 5 years.
- The recent launch of generative AI applications like ChatGPT and GPT4 propelled AI from hype to reality.
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic have dramatically accelerated the fracturing of the world.
- Effects of demographic shifts, which have largely borne out as predicted, have been further amplified by other factors like restrictive immigration policies to create shrinking workforces and severe labor shortages in many countries.
- And social instability has been fuelled by misinformation and decreasing trust levels.
The Megatrends have been building like a tidal wave that is now hitting the shore, and they are being felt in the stream of short-term crises the world is experiencing: inflation, war in Ukraine, energy crisis, bank failures, shortage of healthcare workers, and many more. But we can’t postpone our answer to the Megatrends until after the short-term crises are under control. The short-term crises are being caused or accentuated by the Megatrends, and managing them in a way that doesn’t recognize this relationship will inevitably backfire — and create more numerous and more acute crises. We must deal with the short-term and the long-term together.
These Megatrends are now raising truly existential questions (see below). Each one, on its own, is going to create massive harm, unless humanity mobilizes to turn them around and manage their negative consequences. But what makes this even more difficult is that the Megatrends reinforce each other and act as a system. We can’t fight climate change nor serve an aging population with a smaller workforce unless we scale up a host of new technologies and manage the potential harm these might create. We can neither address climate change nor manage the risks of new technologies unless we find a way to cooperate and reach consensus — among countries as well as within countries. And we cannot achieve any of these unless we rebuild trust, manage the transition in a fair way, and restore social stability.
Climate change: What will it take to solve the climate crisis before the damage is irreparable?
Technological disruption: What does it mean to be human in a world in which technology increasingly overlaps with and augments what humans do and how to use technology to improve life without causing undue harm?
Demographic shifts: How to help groups of people with different needs when money, experience, power, ambition, and capacity are distributed differentially?
Fracturing world: What does it mean to live and thrive in a multi-nodal world?
Social instability: How to create a thriving economy and simultaneously remediate the significant social issues in the world?
Getting these Megatrends under control is the task of this generation. They can feel overwhelming, but there are very practical things that all of us — individuals, organizations, and governments — can do. Let’s start by understanding the Megatrends so we can get to work on them. If we get it right, we have the opportunity to build a great world for future generations.
Learn more about PwC’s Megatrends here: www.pwc.com/megatrends
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